Do SATs & GREs Predict Success? The Controversy About Standardized Tests
For years, tests such as the SAT and GRE have been instrumental in deciding whether one attends college or graduate school. They’ve been regarded as a standard of measure—a means to equalize the playing field and measure intellectual potential. Yet in recent years, that longstanding assumption has been challenged. With increasing numbers of schools going test-optional or test-blind, the controversy regarding the usefulness and equity of standardized testing has grown.
So, do standardized tests such as the SAT or GRE actually foretell success? Or are they archaic measures that measure privilege more than promise? Let’s plunge into the crux of this longstanding debate.
The Case for Standardized Tests
- A Common Benchmark
Proponents of standardized testing contend that these tests provide a uniform measurement across incredibly disparate school systems. A student’s GPA may have a vastly different meaning at a highly competitive private high school than at a cash-strapped public school. But a standardized test, theoretically, puts everyone in the same playing field.
Admissions officers often struggle to compare students from different backgrounds. Test scores help them assess academic readiness in a quantifiable way. If someone scores in the 99th percentile, that says something, regardless of where they went to school.
- Predictive Value for First-Year Success
Various studies throughout the years have indicated that SAT and GRE scores can be predictive of first-year college or graduate school success. Though not precise indicators, standardized tests do provide some indication of a student’s capacity to navigate the demands of academic work—particularly in terms of reading comprehension, critical thinking, and quantitative reasoning.
For instance, the GRE is commonly employed in STEM fields to assess problem-solving abilities. In competitive graduate programs, where students frequently have equivalent GPAs and strong resumes, a high test score could be the determining factor.
The Case Against Standardized Tests
- Socioeconomic Bias
The most glaring objection to standardized tests, perhaps, is that it seems to give advantage to students who are wealthy. Why is this? Because students who come from wealth normally have access to test preparation classes, private instructors, improved educations, and greater amounts of time to study. All of these benefits may artificially boost test scores and reward privilege instead of talent.
A 2020 Opportunity Insights study discovered that students from households in the highest income group were much more likely to have the highest percentiles on the SAT, even when accounting for scholarly ability. That’s a flag for anyone who thinks in terms of merit education.
- Test Anxiety and One-Day Performance
Not all students shine when the pressure is on. Test anxiety is a legitimate and frequently crippling problem. A student may do excellent work in four years of coursework, but fall short on one high-stakes test. Should one bad day be sufficient to ruin their academic career?
Long-term predictors such as GPA, extracurricular activity, recommendation letters, and personal statements are more representative of a student’s ability, say critics. An examination lasting four hours, they maintain, can’t possibly record the nuance of someone’s intelligence, work ethic, or personality.
- Poor Long-Term Predictors
SATs and GREs may or may not foretell first-year grades, but predicting long-term academic success—or even success in life—is considerably more dubious.
For example, research has revealed that GRE scores bear little to no relation to whether one will finish their PhD or produce influential work. Likewise, good SAT scores do not ensure someone will succeed in their career or be a creative problem-solver.
Success is complex, anyway. It requires determination, ingenuity, verbal and written communication, emotional intelligence, and so forth—attributes not tested on standardized tests.
The Rise of the Test-Optional Movement
Over the past decade, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace of the test-optional movement has gained momentum. Over 1,800 U.S. colleges and universities are test-optional or test-blind today, including highly selective institutions such as Harvard, Caltech, and the University of Chicago.
Why the Shift?
The pandemic compelled numerous students to miss testing because of health issues or missed testing dates. That disruption compelled schools to rethink the importance they assigned to scores. But even as testing became available again, numerous institutions opted to stay test-optional for good.
Others found that eliminating the requirement actually resulted in increased diversity without harming academic quality. Indeed, a few schools said that the students they admitted without taking the test performed equally well—if not better—than those who did submit tests.
GRE's Evolving Role in Graduate Admissions
The GRE, which was once a given for all but the rarest graduate programs, is also losing its hold. In such areas as psychology, biology, and engineering, many of the best graduate schools have eliminated the GRE entirely or made it voluntary.
What’s Behind the Shift?
A mix of research and practice. Several studies have shown that GRE scores do not make particularly good predictors of success in grad school, especially among underrepresented minorities. Even the critics claim that the GRE is expensive and in many ways a hurdle for poor students, particularly those who already have difficulty paying application fees and doing research internships on a volunteer basis.
By dropping the GRE, schools hope to increase their pool of applicants and place greater emphasis on research experience, intellectual curiosity, and potential for mentorship.
What Does Predict Success?
If not test scores, then what?
The answer is multifaceted. Academic achievement—particularly in college or graduate school—is determined by a combination of intellectual skills, tenacity, drive, support systems, and socioeconomic status.
Here are some factors that many educators now value:
- High school GPA: A consistent track record of strong performance over time can be a better predictor than a one-day test.
- Letters of recommendation: These provide insight into a student’s work ethic, curiosity, and how they collaborate with others.
- Personal statements and essays: Admissions teams use these to gauge critical thinking, self-awareness, and fit with the institution’s values.
- Leadership and extracurricularextracurriculars: Participation in activities can demonstrate initiative, time management, and juggling multiple obligations.
Success, really, is not something that you scantron. It’s more than marking the right answer with a bubbling device.
Balancing the Equation: A Hybrid Approach?
Others advocate for middle ground. Rather than doing away with tests entirely, why not offer them as an optional but still accessible component of applications? This allows students who believe their scores enhance their application to include them, while others can be considered holistically.
This mixed model honors the reality that no test can capture the entire narrative. It recognizes the value of standardized tests to some, while compensating for their drawbacks for others.
The controversy over SATs and GREs is not just a matter of education policy—it’s a matter of values. What are we looking for in our educational institutions? Are we searching for the greatest test-takers, or the most talented learners and contributors?
Standardized tests, with all their shortcomings, aren’t necessarily evil. They can be very informative when used thoughtfully and responsibly. But they shouldn’t be gatekeepers to opportunity, particularly when they often testify more to a student’s zip code than to his or her real potential.
As we go forward, the education system needs to wrestle with one important question: How do we define success, and how do we identify the individuals most likely to achieve it?
Because in the end, a number on a page should never be more significant than the story behind it.
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